Jeff Sexton

Thursday, October 11, 2007

So When's the Big Sale on Wallstreet?

I was thinking about the stock market...

What they call a bull market has officially entered a 5th year. The average length of a bull market is 3 1/2 years, so it's doing well. I think, as many do, that '08 is going to be good - really good. But what worries me is that after that, beginning sometime in late '08, I have no idea what could happen. I'm thinking at some point I'll move a lot of money out of stocks.

I think what Alan Greenspan has said is ture. Bull markets (bubbles if you like) end naturally for internal reasons at any moment. Whatever happens to be happening in the world at that moment will get blamed for it.

http://www.pbs.org/nbr/site/onair/transcripts/071010_gharib/

"The issue is once you get to the point where the speculative fever breaks, which it does on its own for internal purposes, what happens to be standing there at the point of the break, whether it be somebody making a speech, whether it is a weather change, whether it is some form of event, it will become the cause of the next decline. But the cause is essentially internal. It`s the internal dynamics of booms and busts or bubbles and bursts. It`s human nature. It`s not something which we can do very much about."

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